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TOESPRAAK

Het vertrouwen om te handelen

We komen dichter bij het punt waarop we het vertrouwen zullen hebben om de restrictieve koers van ons monetair beleid terug te draaien, zegt directielid Piero Cipollone. In het huidige klimaat kunnen lagere inflatie en hogere groei tegelijkertijd worden bereikt.

Lees de toespraak

INSERTED BY ANONYMOUS PROXY

Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

TOESPRAAK 27 maart 2024

Rekening houden met klimaat en natuur

Centrale banken en toezichthouders nemen steeds vaker klimaat- en natuuroverwegingen mee om uitvoering te geven aan hun mandaat, zegt directielid Frank Elderson. Ook internationaal gezien is de vooruitgang aanzienlijk, hoewel er nog veel werk aan de winkel is.

Lees de toespraak
OPROEP TOT AANMELDING 27 maart 2024

ECB-vertegenwoordigers Raad van Toezicht

We zoeken kandidaten met een erkende reputatie en beroepservaring in bancaire en financiële aangelegenheden voor de functie van ECB-vertegenwoordiger in de Raad van Toezicht. De uiterste aanmeldingsdatum is 17 april 2024.

Vacature
DIGITALE EURO 21 maart 2024

Pas op voor fraude en oplichting

Mensen worden kennelijk via websites en e-mails gevraagd te beleggen in digitale euro’s. Het gaat hier om oplichting. Wij vragen mensen nooit om geld, om te beleggen of om persoonlijke informatie. Denkt u slachtoffer te zijn? Neem dan meteen contact op met de lokale politie.

Meer informatie
27 March 2024
Remarks by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at an event on climate-related financial risks hosted by the Banco Central do Brasil
27 March 2024
Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by the House of the Euro and the Centre for European Reform
Annexes
27 March 2024
22 March 2024
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Policy Lecture at Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE) in Marseille
20 March 2024
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The ECB and its Watchers XXIV Conference, organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main
Annexes
20 March 2024
20 March 2024
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The ECB and its Watchers XXIV Conference, organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main
19 March 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Michalis Psilos
English
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7 February 2024
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 2 February 2024
3 February 2024
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Jonathan Witteman on 29 January 2024
English
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31 January 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kolja Rudzio
English
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22 January 2024
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, French and German members of parliament and other personalities, published on n-tv.de
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
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22 March 2024
The Eurosystem is shrinking its balance sheet, which makes more government bonds available for purchase. The ECB Blog looks at how markets are adjusting to this new situation with regard to bond price volatility, liquidity and the impact on repo markets.
Details
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
14 March 2024
Central banks have been collecting art for a long time. While the works were previously only accessible at their physical locations, more and more central banks now make their collections available online. The ECB Blog showcases four collections you can enjoy from wherever you are.
11 March 2024
In 2021-22 inflation surged due to the direct and indirect effects of the energy shock, together with a set of pandemic-related factors and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this post on The ECB Blog, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane looks at the monetary policy actions taken by the ECB in response to these extraordinary inflation shocks.
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
22 February 2024
Bitcoin has failed on the promise to be a global decentralised digital currency. Instead it is used for illicit transactions. The latest approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not suitable as means of payment or as an investment.
Details
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
19 February 2024
Many banks worry their customers might withdraw deposits to hold digital euro instead. These fears are misplaced: a digital euro will be designed as a means of payment and not for investment, argue ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf.
Details
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
27 March 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2922
Details
Abstract
This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans. We also find that demographic, economic factors, perceptions and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and the credit grant.
JEL Code
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
G51 : Financial Economics
25 March 2024
LETTERS TO MEPS
25 March 2024
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
22 March 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2921
Details
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of voluntary climate commitments by banks on their lending activity. We use administrative data on the universe of bank lending from 19 European countries. There is strong selection into commitments, with increased participation by the largest banks and banks with the most pre-existing exposure to high-polluting industries. Setting a commitment leads to a boost in a lender’s ESG rating. Lenders reduce credit in sectors they have targeted as high priority for decarbonization. However, climate-aligned banks do not change their lending or loan pricing differentially compared to banks without climate commitments, suggesting they are not actively divesting. We can reject that climate-aligned lenders divest from firms in targeted sectors by more than 2.6%. Firm borrowers are no more likely to set climate targets after their lender sets a climate target, which casts doubt on active engagement by lenders. These results call into question the efficacy of voluntary commitments.
JEL Code
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
22 March 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
Plausibility checks performed in Anacredit datasets
21 March 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2920
Details
Abstract
We examine rating behaviour after the introduction of new regulations regarding Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) in the European securitisation market. Employing a large sample of 12,469 ABS tranches issued between 1998 and 2018, we examine the information content of yield spreads of ABS at the issuance and compare the pre- and post-GFC periods. We find that the regulatory changes have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest between issuers and CRAs in securitisation. Rating catering seems to have disappeared in the post-GFC period. Yet we see limited effectiveness on rating shopping. It follows that rating over-reliance might be an issue, especially for investors of higher-quality ABS.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
21 March 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2919
Details
Abstract
We use nonlinear empirical methods to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of monetary policy shocks. We find that the transmission on output, goods prices and asset prices is stronger in a low growth regime, contrary to the findings of Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016). The impact is stronger on private investment and durables and milder on the consumption of nondurable goods and services. In periods of low growth, a contractionary monetary policy implies lower expected Treasury rates and higher premia along the entire Treasury yield curve. Similarly, the corporate excess bond premium rises and the stock market drops substantially during recessions. We use the monetary policy surprises and their predictors provided by Bauer and Swanson (2023a), and identify an additional predictor, the National Financial Condition Index (NFCI), which is relevant in the nonlinear setting. A Threshold VAR, a Smooth-Transition VAR and nonlinear local projection methods all corroborate the findings.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
21 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
21 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly affecting the euro area economy. That is why the ECB is committed to integrating climate change considerations into its activities. On 30 January 2024 the ECB published its climate and nature plan 2024-2025, which identifies three focus areas for its future work: (i) navigating the transition towards a green economy, (ii) addressing the increasing physical impact of climate change, and (iii) advancing work on nature-related risks. This box sets out the economic reasoning behind the ECB’s decision to advance its work in these three areas.
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
21 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
The global role of a currency can be measured in several ways, including by looking at its use in payments. After March 2023 the share of the euro in total Swift payment messages (i.e. payment instructions sent via the Swift network) appeared to drop. This coincided with a major infrastructure change in Europe – namely, the launch of the Eurosystem’s next-generation large-value payment system for the euro, T2, which replaced TARGET2 – and a move to a new Swift message standard. The associated technical changes have altered the ways in which banks make euro payments and manage euro liquidity, resulting in a break in the data on euro‑denominated Swift payment messages. In fact, the total value of euro payments settled in T2 has actually remained largely stable relative to figures for its predecessor, TARGET2, and so has the global reach of the payment system. This analysis shows the importance of accounting for technical factors when interpreting indicators based on payment traffic.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
21 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth maintenance periods of 2023, from 1 November 2023 to 30 January 2024.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box looks at errors in Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections over the post-pandemic period, updating and extending earlier analysis published in 2022 and 2023. Projection errors have come down considerably since the end of 2022 and now stand close to pre-pandemic levels. The low predictability of energy commodity prices (which surprised markets on the downside in 2023) explains a significant share of the recent errors in HICP inflation projections. The remaining errors are likely to stem from non-standard transmission of the exceptional shocks to commodity prices and global supply chains – which, together with demand shocks, explain a large share of the post-pandemic dynamics of HICP inflation excluding food and energy (HICPX), including in 2023. Eurosystem and ECB staff continue to refine their forecasting toolkits, providing additional analysis that informs projections in times of high uncertainty.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
21 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
Rising trade tensions and a spate of policies aiming to bring national security concerns to bear in trade relations have sparked growing concern about the potential implications of global trade fragmentation. Yet, empirical evidence that geopolitical concerns are already materially affecting trade patterns is scant. This box addresses the issue using a structural gravity model augmented with a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting to investigate the role played by geopolitical factors for trade in manufacturing goods over the period 2012-22. It provides evidence that the degree of geopolitical alignment is playing an increasing role in determining bilateral trade flows. The impact of geopolitical distance on trade is heterogeneous: in particular, geopolitical considerations mostly affect European trade in strategic products.
JEL Code
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
21 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
Recent volatility in oil and gas prices has rekindled interest in understanding how much fundamental factors – global supply and demand – and non-fundamental factors contribute to price movements. This box constructs indices of speculation based on futures positions. Overall, speculation has only a limited role in both oil and gas price dynamics, although the degree of speculation is somewhat higher in European gas markets than in US gas markets. Empirical estimates also suggest that the role of speculation in amplifying the transmission of fundamental shocks to oil prices is limited, including in times of heightened geopolitical risk.
JEL Code
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
20 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
Food price inflation was one of the main contributors to the strong rise in euro area headline inflation in 2022 and to the period of disinflation that followed. An extraordinary surge in energy costs was the main factor behind higher consumer food inflation in 2021 and 2022. Increases in global food commodity prices and euro area farm gate prices also contributed significantly. In the high inflation environment, domestic factors – such as wage and profit developments – have gradually emerged as increasingly important factors in keeping food inflation elevated. The exceptional, largely externally driven shocks to energy, global food commodity and euro area farm gate prices are fading, and this is expected to contribute to a moderation in food inflation in the course of 2024. However, strong wage growth implies only a gradual unwinding going forward.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
20 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. The findings suggest that households have primarily adjusted their consumption spending to cope with higher inflation. However, noteworthy adjustments were also observed through the saving and income margins. The decline in the saving rate in 2022 and 2023 was mainly attributed to increased spending on recreation and travel, mostly driven by high-income consumers.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D15 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
19 March 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
19 March 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024
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Abstract
Recent shocks such as the pandemic and the energy shock triggered by Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine have interacted with other structural changes, including the green and digital transitions, leading to an uncertain impact on the medium-term productivity prospects of the euro area. This article summarises the key results of recent work on productivity by a group of experts from the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). The analysis builds on previous work undertaken in the context of the ECB monetary policy strategy review.
JEL Code
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O38 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Government Policy
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
19 March 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 117
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Abstract
The pandemic's disruption of global supply chains and the spike in natural gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were significant drivers of surging inflation. Traditional inflation models often ignore such supply-side shocks, even though they can have a significant and persistent impact on core inflation in the euro area (as measured by rates of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices excluding the energy and food components). In response, we propose a new model that takes these and other factors into account, particularly as future inflation dynamics could be shaped by the impact of geopolitical tensions on supply chains and the role of gas in the green transition.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C38 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Classification Methods, Cluster Analysis, Principal Components, Factor Models
18 March 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION

Rentetarieven

Marginale belenings­faciliteit 4,75 %
Basis­herfinancierings­transacties (vaste rente) 4,50 %
Deposito­faciliteit 4,00 %
Vanaf 20 september 2023 Historische rentetarieven

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