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MĚNOVÁ POLITIKA
12. září 2024
Nejnovější tisková konference ECB
Prezidentka Christine Lagardeová a viceprezident Luis de Guindos vysvětlili na tiskové konferenci nejnovější měnová rozhodnutí Rady guvernérů a odpověděli na dotazy novinářů.
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MĚNOVÁ POLITIKA
12. září 2024
Naše měnové prohlášení stručně a jasně
Jaké jsou hlavní body našeho nového měnového prohlášení a co pro nás bylo při rozhodování důležité? A jaký vývoj ekonomiky očekáváme? Naše vizuální prohlášení to vysvětluje stručně a srozumitelně.
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BLOG ECB
17. září 2024
Překážky ekologizace průmyslu
Energeticky náročné podniky nadále sužují nízké ziskové marže, i když vlivy energetického cenového šoku oslábly. Blog ECB pojednává o důsledcích přechodu na zelenou ekonomiku v EU.
Přečtěte si blog ECB- 17 September 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 17 September 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 12 September 2024
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 12 September 2024
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 12 September 2024
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 10 September 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 10 September 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 3 September 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 3 September 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 3 September 2024
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 16 September 2024
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists’ Meeting
- 12 September 2024
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 September 2024EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 12 September 2024
- 12 September 2024
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 6 September 2024
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ESCB Legal Conference 2024
- 30 August 2024
- Lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Ragnar Nurkse Lecture Series organised by Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia
- 29 August 2024
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at annual Central Bank Research Association meeting in Frankfurt, Germany
- 4 September 2024
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
- 26 July 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 22 July 2024
- 23 July 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Sergio Rivas
- 11 June 2024
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf, Stefan Reccius, Isabella Bufacchi, Guillaume Benoit and Alexandre Counis in Paris on 7 June 2024
- 27 May 2024
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 24 May 2024
- 17 September 2024
- Energy-intensive firms continue to suffer from low profits margins even as energy prices have fallen from their peak. The ECB Blog discusses implications for the green transition in the EU.
- 3 September 2024
- Euro area exporters are facing tougher competition from China. But why is that? The ECB Blog looks at the important role played by price competitiveness and the ongoing industrial upgrades being made in China.Details
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
- 15 August 2024
- How quickly do consumers react to rate hikes? The answer depends in part on how much they know about financial matters. This ECB Blog post shows that the better informed they are, the quicker their reaction.Details
- JEL Code
- D10 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→General
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
- 31 July 2024
- Central banks choose their words very carefully. And rightly so – policy makers’ wording can move markets and, eventually, the economy. This ECB Blog post shows how unexpected changes in communication influence growth and inflation.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
- 23 July 2024
- Repo markets are vital for banks to source liquidity and securities. They also represent an essential link in the monetary policy transmission chain. While the Eurosystem is in the process of reducing its market footprint, repo markets are going through a phase of change. The ECB Blog looks at dynamics in this market.Details
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 18 September 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 122Details
- Abstract
- What factors could drive transactional demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We analyse payment survey data to arrive at a framework for understanding the role of adoption frictions and design strategies in shaping CBDC demand. The results of our analysis show that, while consumers may initially prefer to use more traditional payment methods, a design tailored to their specific needs could significantly increase CBDC uptake. Raising awareness and capitalising on network effects could also boost demand for CBDC.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 16 September 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2982Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents an event-study methodology that combines market data and survey-based probabilities to infer the full effect of a policy decision, as seen through the lens of financial markets. The market reaction to an event’s outcome reflects its surprise or announcement effect, and generally not its full effect. However, under certain conditions, the unobserved full effect can be derived from the observed surprise effect. Most importantly, the ex-ante probabilities of different outcomes must be known. We apply this methodology to a real-world example: the European Central Bank’s announcement of its third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROIII). The introduction of TLTROIII was highly anticipated, and therefore partially priced in, as market participants feared a “cliff effect” with the preceding operations under TLTROII coming due. We estimate the announcement’s full effect, focusing on its impact on a set of asset prices, as compared to a baseline wherein TLTROIII would not have been introduced. The full market impact surpasses the surprise effect by a factor of fifteen. We also find that the announcement had a highly heterogeneous impact on euro area sovereign bond yields.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
- 16 September 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 16 September 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 356Details
- Abstract
- This study assesses euro area banks’ profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries to assess the profitability of lending activities among euro area banks. Using banks’ own projections under the adverse scenarios of the stress test exercises for a consistent sample of euro area banks, we aim to uncover the effect of severe macroeconomic and financial conditions on the profitability of the various portfolios. We investigate how many country portfolios switch from profitable to loss-making under adverse conditions and show that this number peaks in the 2018 stress test exercise, while the 2021 exercise yields the lowest overall profitability. Overall, around 30% of exposures become unprofitable under stress conditions across the latest two exercises (compared to 20% for the 2016 exercise), mostly concentrated in the non-financial corporations (NFC) segment and, to a lesser extent, in the financial and mortgage portfolios. We also show in a regression analysis that the yield curve is an important determinant of portfolio-level profitability in a stress test setting, while the unemployment rate seems to be relevant in determining portfolio switches and GDP growth seems to influence the change in profitability. The results also point to some portfolio heterogeneity.
- 13 September 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2981Details
- Abstract
- Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial system. This paper proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, Spillover Persistence. I document that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial conditions; during banking crises, Spillover Persistence is higher, whereas in the run-up phase of stock market bubbles it is lower. Lower Spillover Persistence also associates with a more fragile system, e.g., a higher probability of future crises, consistent with the volatility paradox. The results emphasize the dynamics of loss spillovers as an important dimension of systemic risk and financial constraints as a key determinant of persistence.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 13 September 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2980Details
- Abstract
- By applying a structural demand model to unique consumer-level survey data from the euro area, we assess how different CBDC design options, combined with individual (revealed) preferences, influence the potential demand for a digital euro. Estimating the demand for a digital euro, we find that if it were unconstrained, it could range, in steady state, between 3-28% of household liquid assets or €0.12 - €1.11 trillion, depending on whether consumers would perceive the digital euro to be more cash-like or deposit-like. With an illustrative €3,000 holding limit per person, it could instead range between 2-9% or €0.10 -€0.38 trillion. Privacy, automatic funding, and instant settlement raise its potential demand.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 12 September 2024
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 12 September 2024
- ANNEX
- 5 September 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPSRelated
- 5 September 2024
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - SCHEME RULEBOOK DEVELOPMENT GROUP DOCUMENTS
- 3 September 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 30 August 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 355Details
- Abstract
- The Eurosystem implements its monetary policy through a set of monetary policy instruments (MPIs). The period covered by this report (2022-23) was dominated by high inflation, which led to a change from an easing to a tightening monetary policy environment in line with the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) to pursue price stability. This report focuses on the accompanying shift in the use of MPIs. Key ECB interest rates were hiked to an unprecedented extent and at exceptional speed, leading to an exit from negative interest rates. This was accompanied by a gradual phasing-out of reinvestments under the asset purchase programmes, revisions to the conditions of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) and their subsequent substantial early repayments, and a phasing-out of pandemic collateral easing measures. This report discusses these developments and provides a full overview of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy implementation from 2022-23.
- JEL Code
- D02 : Microeconomics→General→Institutions: Design, Formation, and Operations
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 29 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2979Details
- Abstract
- We examine the issue of the appropriate selection of macroprudential instruments according to the vulnerabilities identified and the policymakers’ objectives using a version of the 3D DSGE model following Mendicino et al. (2020) and Hinterschweiger et al. (2021) calibrated for the euro area. We consider a broad set of macroprudential instruments, including broad and sectoral countercyclical capital requirements, LTV and LTI limits and assess their transmission channels as well as their effectiveness in mitigating rising broad and sectoral vulnerabilities. We find that sectoral instruments are most effective to increase bank resilience to sectoral risks, limiting spillover effects. LTI limits are superior to LTV limits in containing the growth of mortgage credit and household indebtedness. Finally, we find that macroprudential policy is better suited than monetary policy to address emerging real estate-related imbalances.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 29 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2978Details
- Abstract
- Over the last decades, macro-economists have renewed their efforts to reduce the gap between monetary macroeconomics and real-world central banking. This paper reviews how macroeconomics has since 2016 approached the possible introduction of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDC). A review of the literature reveals that macroeconomic models of CBDC often rely on CBDC design features and narratives which are no longer in line with the one of central banks actually working on CBDC. In particular, the literature often (i) does not take into account the nature of central banks’ CBDC issuance plans as a “conservative” reaction to profound technological and preferential shifts in the use of money as a means of payments, (ii) does not start from design features communicated by central banks, such as no-remuneration, quantity limits, access restrictions, and automated sweeping functionality linking CBDC wallets with commercial bank accounts; (iii) does not explain well enough the difference between CBDC and banknotes within their macro-economic models, apart from remuneration (which central banks actually do not foresee); and (iv) assume that CBDC will lead to a significant increase in the total holdings of central bank money in the economy, although (i) and (ii) make this unlikely.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
- 28 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2977Details
- Abstract
- We build a model of the aggregate housing and rental markets in which houseprices and rents are determined endogenously. Households can choose their housingtenure status (renters, homeowners, or landlords) and the size of their homes dependingon their age, income and wealth. We use our model to study the impact of changesin credit conditions on house prices, rents and household welfare. We analyse theintroduction of policies that limited loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratiosof newly originated mortgages in Ireland in 2015 and find that, consistent with empiricalevidence, they mitigate house price growth but increase rents. Homeownership ratesdrop, and young and middle-income households are negatively affected by the reform.An unexpected permanent rise in real interest rates has similar effects – by makingmortgages more expensive and alternative investments more attractive for landlords, itincreases rents relative to house prices.
- JEL Code
- D15 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G51 : Financial Economics
- 27 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2976Details
- Abstract
- We use 25 years of tax records for the Norwegian population to study the mobility of wealth over people’s lifetimes. We find considerable wealth mobility over the life cycle. To understand the underlying mobility patterns, we group individuals with similar wealth rank histories using agglomerative hierarchical clustering, a tool from statistical learning. The mobility patterns we elicit provide evidence of segmented mobility. Over 60 percent of the population remains at the top or bottom of the wealth distribution throughout their lives. Mobility is driven by the remaining 40 percent, who move only within the middle of the distribution. Movements are tied to differential income trajectories and business activities across groups. We show parental wealth is the key predictor of who is persistently rich or poor, while human capital is the main predictor of those who rise and fall through the middle of the distribution.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C38 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Classification Methods, Cluster Analysis, Principal Components, Factor Models
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
- 26 August 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 21 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2975Details
- Abstract
- Using a novel dataset linking firm level data from the Survey on Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) and bank level data from the Bank Lending Survey (BLS), we explore how changes in credit standards pass through to firms at a granular level. We find that tighter credit standards decrease loan availability reported by firms, increase the likelihood they report access to finance as the worst problem and decrease their investment. After controlling for country-sector-time fixed effects that capture cyclical macroeconomic conditions, effects only remain for firms that need finance. Moreover, we find that a more diversified funding base insulates firms from the negative impacts of tighter credit standards on availability of bank loans and access to finance, although there is little evidence of such an effect forinvestment. Effects are asymmetric, with stronger impacts recorded for a tightening than an easing. Our results underscore the importance of demand conditions when interpreting the credit conditions and we thus propose a new indicator of demand adjusted credit standards at a euro area level, which can be used to analyse broader credit dynamics.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 14 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2974Details
- Abstract
- We analyze how corporate reorganization and liquidation change labor reallocation during bankruptcy using randomized judge assignments and linked Portuguese employer-employee and firm data. Reorganization reduces the negative effect of bankruptcy on employee earnings, even with most workers leaving reorganized firms. We examine plausible mechanisms and find evidence that the retention of general skills and improved job-match quality contribute meaningfully to this effect. The average cost of labor misallocation caused by reorganization is small. However, for some workers in the least productive filers, this cost can be large, outweighing the effect on earnings.
- JEL Code
- G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
K39 : Law and Economics→Other Substantive Areas of Law→Other
- 14 August 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 14 August 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 14 August 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
Úrokové sazby
| Marginální zápůjční facilita | 3,90 % |
| Hlavní refinanční operace (s pevnou sazbou) | 3,65 % |
| Vkladová facilita | 3,50 % |
Míra inflace
Více o inflaciSměnné kurzy
| USD | US dollar | 1.1124 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 157.94 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.84225 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9388 |
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