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Sixth conference on expectations surveys

Joint conference of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Thursday, 9 and Friday, 10 October 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

This annual conference aims to convene scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.

Conference topics cover a wide range of research focusing on the collection and analysis of surveys of households, firms, and financial market participants. The conference program will feature a plenary keynote session by Luigi Pistaferri of Stanford University, and a panel of survey experts focusing on best practices in conducting probability-based household internet panels.

Programme

* Indicates the presenter

Thursday, 9 October 2025
8:30

Registration and Breakfast

8:50

Welcoming Remarks by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

9:00

Expectations and Consumer Behavior

Chair: Gizem Kosar (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Geopolitical Risks and their Implications for Consumer Expectations and Spending

  • Olivier Coibion
  • Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank)
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Geoff Kenny

Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume

  • Gizem Kosar
  • Davide Melcangi (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) 

Wage Expectations and Job Search

  • Steffen Altman
  • Robert Mahlstedt
  • Malte Rattenborg
  • Alexander Sebald
  • Sonja Settele
  • Johannes Wohlfart (University of Cologne) 
10:30

Coffee Break

11:00

Firm Expectations

Chair: Giorgio Topa (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)


The Effects of Uncertainty on Firms’ Pricing Behavior and Activity

  • Giuseppe Fiori (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
  • Filippo Scoccianti

Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms

  • Ina Hajdini
  • Saten Kumar
  • Samreen Malik
  • Jordan Norris
  • Mathieu Pedemonte (Inter-American Development Bank)

Business Uncertainty in Developing and Emerging Economies

  • Edgar Avalos
  • Jose Maria Barrero (Instituto Tecnologico Autónomo de Mexico Business School)
  • Elwyn Davies
  • Leonardo Iacovone
  • Jesica Torres
12:30

Lunch

14:00

Panel Discussion: Perspectives on Running Expectations Surveys

Moderator: Wilbert van der Klaauw (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Panelists:

  • Thomas Crossley (Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan)
  • Jeff Dominitz (Rice University)
  • Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank)
15:00

Coffee Break

15:30

Flash Talks I

Chair: Patrick Sabourin (Bank of Canada)


Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Demand for Contraception

  • Aureo de Paula
  • Grant Miller
  • Christine Valente (University of Bristol)



Search Costs, Outside Options, and On-the-Job Search

  • Armando Miano (University of Naples)
  • What Determines Household Expectations?
  • Anushka Mitra (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
  • Aditi Singh
16:15

Coffee Break

16:30

Flash Talks II

Chair: Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank)


Inflation Preferences

  • Hassan Afrouzi
  • Alexander Dietrich
  • Kristian Ove Myrseth
  • Romanos Priftis
  • Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University)

Selective Inattention to Interest Rates

  • Tim de Silva
  • Pierfrancesco Mei (Goldman Sachs)

Selective Inattention to Interest Rates

  • Tim de Silva
  • Pierfrancesco Mei (Goldman Sachs)
17:45

Reception

18:15

Dinner

10 October 2025
8:30

Breakfast

9:00

Keynote Lecture

Chair: Wilbert van der Klaauw


Eliciting Marginal Propensity Data

Luigi Pistaferri (Stanford University)

10:00

Coffee Break

10:30

Methods and Measurement

Chair: Olena Kostyshyna (Bank of Canada)


Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Columbia

  • Manuel Arellano
  • Orazio Attanasio (Yale University)
  • Sam Crossman
  • Victor Sancibrian

Learning from Survey Density Forecasts

  • Martin Almuzara
  • Richard Crump (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
  • Gizem Kosar

Incentivizing Inflation Expectations

  • Sergii Drobot
  • Daniela Puzzello (Indiana University at Bloomington)
  • Ryan Rholes
  • Alena Wabitsch

Understanding the Accuracy of Non-Random Survey Through a Unique Matched Administrative – Expectations Dataset

  • Naveen Rai
  • Xu Zhang (Bank of Canada)
12:30

Lunch

13:30

Belief Formation

Chair: Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank)


Attention to the Macroeconomy

  • Sebastian Link
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Oliver Pfauti (University of Texas at Austin)
  • Christopher Roth
  • Johannes Wohlfart

Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory

Josefina Cenzon (Bocconi University)


Lumpy Forecasts in Volatile Times

  • Isaac Baley
  • Javier Turen (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile)
15:00

End of Conference

General information

Organizing Committee
  • Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
  • Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
  • Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
  • Georgi Kocharkov, European Central Bank
  • Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
  • Tao Wang, Bank of Canada