Sixth conference on expectations surveys
Joint conference of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Thursday, 9 and Friday, 10 October 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
This annual conference aims to convene scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.
Conference topics cover a wide range of research focusing on the collection and analysis of surveys of households, firms, and financial market participants. The conference program will feature a plenary keynote session by Luigi Pistaferri of Stanford University, and a panel of survey experts focusing on best practices in conducting probability-based household internet panels.
Programme
* Indicates the presenter
- 8:30
-
Registration and Breakfast
- 8:50
-
Welcoming Remarks by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 9:00
-
Expectations and Consumer Behavior
Chair: Gizem Kosar (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
-
Geopolitical Risks and their Implications for Consumer Expectations and Spending
- Olivier Coibion
- Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank)
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko
- Geoff Kenny
-
Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume
- Gizem Kosar
- Davide Melcangi (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
-
Wage Expectations and Job Search
- Steffen Altman
- Robert Mahlstedt
- Malte Rattenborg
- Alexander Sebald
- Sonja Settele
- Johannes Wohlfart (University of Cologne)
- 10:30
-
Coffee Break
- 11:00
-
Firm Expectations
Chair: Giorgio Topa (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
-
The Effects of Uncertainty on Firms’ Pricing Behavior and Activity
- Giuseppe Fiori (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
- Filippo Scoccianti
-
Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms
- Ina Hajdini
- Saten Kumar
- Samreen Malik
- Jordan Norris
- Mathieu Pedemonte (Inter-American Development Bank)
-
Business Uncertainty in Developing and Emerging Economies
- Edgar Avalos
- Jose Maria Barrero (Instituto Tecnologico Autónomo de Mexico Business School)
- Elwyn Davies
- Leonardo Iacovone
- Jesica Torres
- 12:30
-
Lunch
- 14:00
-
Panel Discussion: Perspectives on Running Expectations Surveys
Moderator: Wilbert van der Klaauw (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Panelists:
- Thomas Crossley (Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan)
- Jeff Dominitz (Rice University)
- Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank)
- 15:00
-
Coffee Break
- 15:30
-
Flash Talks I
Chair: Patrick Sabourin (Bank of Canada)
-
Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Demand for Contraception
- Aureo de Paula
- Grant Miller
- Christine Valente (University of Bristol)
-
Search Costs, Outside Options, and On-the-Job Search
- Armando Miano (University of Naples)
- What Determines Household Expectations?
- Anushka Mitra (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
- Aditi Singh
- 16:15
-
Coffee Break
- 16:30
-
Flash Talks II
Chair: Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank)
-
Inflation Preferences
- Hassan Afrouzi
- Alexander Dietrich
- Kristian Ove Myrseth
- Romanos Priftis
- Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University)
-
Selective Inattention to Interest Rates
- Tim de Silva
- Pierfrancesco Mei (Goldman Sachs)
-
Selective Inattention to Interest Rates
- Tim de Silva
- Pierfrancesco Mei (Goldman Sachs)
- 17:45
-
Reception
- 18:15
-
Dinner
- 8:30
-
Breakfast
- 9:00
-
Keynote Lecture
Chair: Wilbert van der Klaauw
-
Eliciting Marginal Propensity Data
Luigi Pistaferri (Stanford University)
- 10:00
-
Coffee Break
- 10:30
-
Methods and Measurement
Chair: Olena Kostyshyna (Bank of Canada)
-
Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Columbia
- Manuel Arellano
- Orazio Attanasio (Yale University)
- Sam Crossman
- Victor Sancibrian
-
Learning from Survey Density Forecasts
- Martin Almuzara
- Richard Crump (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
- Gizem Kosar
-
Incentivizing Inflation Expectations
- Sergii Drobot
- Daniela Puzzello (Indiana University at Bloomington)
- Ryan Rholes
- Alena Wabitsch
-
Understanding the Accuracy of Non-Random Survey Through a Unique Matched Administrative – Expectations Dataset
- Naveen Rai
- Xu Zhang (Bank of Canada)
- 12:30
-
Lunch
- 13:30
-
Belief Formation
Chair: Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank)
-
Attention to the Macroeconomy
- Sebastian Link
- Andreas Peichl
- Oliver Pfauti (University of Texas at Austin)
- Christopher Roth
- Johannes Wohlfart
-
Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
Josefina Cenzon (Bocconi University)
-
Lumpy Forecasts in Volatile Times
- Isaac Baley
- Javier Turen (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile)
- 15:00
-
End of Conference
General information
- Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
- Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
- Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
- Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
- Georgi Kocharkov, European Central Bank
- Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
- Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
- Tao Wang, Bank of Canada