Fine-tuning the forecasting tools

Our analysis is like a window into the engine room of the economy. It helps us understand how growth and inflation are evolving. This is the basis for sound monetary policy decisions.

As uncertainty increases and our economies are hit more often by shocks, forecasting gets more challenging. That’s why we need a broad and evolving analytical toolkit. We use a wide range of forecasting models. And we don’t just look at the most likely outcome for the economy – called the “baseline” projection. Whenever necessary, we also analyse different scenarios that consider complex “what if” questions.

We continually upgrade this toolkit to ensure our economic analysis remains fit for purpose in an uncertain and changing world.