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Régis Gourdel
- 16 December 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2757Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops a framework for the short-term modelling of market risk and shock propagation in the investment funds sector, including bi-layer contagion effects through funds’ cross-holdings and overlapping exposures. Our work tackles in particular climate risk, with a first-of-its-kind dual view of transition and physical climate risk exposures at the fund level. So far, while fund managers communicate more aggressively on their awareness of climate risk, it is still poorly assessed. Our analysis shows that the topology of the fund network matters and that both contagion channels are important in its study. A stress test on the basis of granular short-term transition shocks suggests that the differentiated integration of sustainability information by funds has made network amplification less likely, although first-round losses can be material. On the other hand, there is room for fund managers and regulators to consider physical risk better and mitigate the second round effects it induces, as they are less efficiently absorbed by investment funds. Improving transparency and setting relevant industry standards in this context would help mitigate short-term financial stability risks.
- JEL Code
- C62 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 20 May 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2665Details
- Abstract
- We analyse the double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area economy and banking sector. By tailoring the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent behavioural model, we provide a dynamic balance sheet assessment of the Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios. We find that an orderly transition achieves early co-benefits by reducing carbon emissions (12% less in 2040 than in 2020) while supporting growth in economic output. In contrast, a disorderly transition worsens the economic performance and financial stability of the euro area. Further, in disorderly transition with high physical risks, real GDP decreases by 12,5%in 2050 relative to an orderly transition. Second, by extending the concept of climate sentiments to firms, we analyse how expectations about climate policy credibility affect investment decision in high or low-carbon goods. Firms that trust an orderly policy introduction and anticipate carbon price scenarios switch earlier to low-carbon investments. This, in turn, accelerates economic decarbonization and decreases the risk of carbon stranded assets for investors. Our results highlight the crucial role of early and credible climate policies to signal investment decisions in the low-carbon transition.
- JEL Code
- B59 : History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches→Current Heterodox Approaches→Other
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 6 August 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2581Details
- Abstract
- This paper shows how the combined endogenous reaction of banks and investment funds to an exogenous shock can amplify or dampen losses to the financial system compared to results from single-sector stress testing models. We build a new model of contagion propagation using a very large and granular data set for the euro area. Based on the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, we model three sources of exogenous shocks: a default shock, a market shock and a redemption shock. Our contagion mechanism operates through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. The joint modelling of banks and funds provides new insights for the assessment of financial stability risks. Our analysis reveals that adding the fund sector to our model for banks leads to additional losses through fire sales and a further depletion of banks’ capital ratios by around one percentage point.
- JEL Code
- D85 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
L14 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks
- 26 May 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Recent events have shown that stress in non-banks can affect other parts of the financial system, for example through forced asset sales and reduced short-term funding. This box examines the interconnections between banks and non-banks through direct exposures, overlapping portfolios and ownership links, and considers how these can increase the risk of systemic contagion.
- 31 October 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2323Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents a model for stress testing investment funds, based on a broad worldwide sample of primary open-end equity and bond funds. First, we employ a Bayesian technique to project the impact of macro-financial scenarios on country-level portfolio flows worldwide that are constructed from fund-level asset holdings. Second, from these projected country-level flows, we model the scenarios’ repercussions on individual funds along a three year horizon. Importantly, we further decompose portfolio flows, disentangling the specific contributions of transactions, valuation and foreign exchange effects. Overall, our results indicate that the impact of a global adverse macro-financial scenario leads to a median depletion in assets under management (AUM) of 24% and 5%, for euro area-domiciled equity and bond funds respectively, largely driven by valuation effects. Scenario and results both present similarities to the global financial crisis. We use historical information on fund liquidations to estimate a threshold for a drop in AUM that signals a high likelihood of a forthcoming liquidation. Based on this, we estimate that 5.8% and 0.5% of euro area-domiciled equity and bond funds respectively could go into liquidation. Such empirical thresholds can be useful for the implementation of prudential policy tools, such as redemption gates.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation