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Eighth ECB Annual Research Conference 2023

21 and 22 September 2023

European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

This is the eighth edition of the Annual Research Conference, the ECB’s flagship research event. The conference features research paper presentations by leading economists on topics relevant for a central bank. The highlight is the Jean Monnet Lecture, delivered this year by Roger B. Myerson.

Speakers

Programme

Thursday, 21 September 2023
9:00

Welcoming remarks

Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

 
Welcoming remarks and Session I
 

Session I

Chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

 

A monetary policy asset pricing model

Alp Simsek, Yale School of Management (together with Ricardo J. Caballero, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Discussant: Lars E.O. Svensson, Stockholm School of Economics
9:50

Inflation and GDP dynamics in production networks: A sufficient statistics approach

Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University (together with Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin)

Discussant: Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim

10:40

Coffee break

11:10

Session II

Chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank

 

Lending and monitoring: Big tech vs banks

Catherine Casamatta, Toulouse School of Economics (together with Matthieu Bouvard, Toulouse School of Economics, and Rui Xiong, Toulouse School of Management)

Discussant: David Martinez-Miera, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

12:00

Invisible primes: Fintech lending with alternative data

Marco Di Maggio, Harvard Business School (together with Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, Louisiana State University, and Don Carmichael, Upstart Operations)

Discussant: Tobias Berg, Goethe University Frankfurt

13:00

Lunch

14:30

Session III

Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank

 

Adjustment dynamics during a strategic estimation task

Luminita Stevens, University of Maryland (together with Mel Win Khaw, Microsoft, and Michael Woodford, Columbia University)

Discussant: Martin Ellison, University of Oxford

15:20

Predictable forecast errors in full-information rational expectations models with regime shifts

Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (together with André Kurmann, Drexel University)

Discussant: Alexandre N. Kohlhas, University of Oxford

16:10

Coffee break

16:40

Session IV

Chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Jean Monnet Lecture

Postwar reconstruction assistance and local governments in Ukraine

Roger B. Myerson, University of Chicago (together with Oleksandra Keudel, Kyiv School of Economics)

 
Roger B. Myerson – concluding thoughts
17:55

End of day one

Friday, 22 September 2023
9:00

Session V

Chair: Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank

 

Innovation, industry equilibrium, and discount rates

Francesca Zucchi, European Central Bank (together with Maria Cecilia Bustamante, University of Maryland)

Discussant: Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, Bocconi University

9:50

Churn and stability: The remarkable heterogeneity of flows among employment, job search, and non-market activities in the U.S. population

Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (together with Robert E. Hall, Stanford University)

Discussant: Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, London School of Economics

10:40

Coffee break

11:10

Session VI

Chair: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank

 

Why does the yield curve predict GDP growth? The role of banks

Camelia Minoiu, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (together with Andres Schneider, and Min Wei, both Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Discussant: Glenn Schepens, European Central Bank

12:00

The safety net: Central bank balance sheets and financial crises, 1587-2020

Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (together with Niall Ferguson, Hoover Institution, Martin Kornejew, University of Bonn, and Paul Schmelzing, Boston College)

Discussant: Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University

12:50

Lunch

14:00

End of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Time allocation: 25 minutes for each paper presenter, 15 minutes for each discussant, 10 minutes for a general discussion.

Audiovisual notice: The entire event will be live streamed, recorded and published on the ECB’s website shortly after the conference. Journalists will be present and will report on the event.

General information

Venue

European Central Bank
Main Building
Press Room (C5.01)
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Conference language

English

Contacts

Organising committee

Luc Laeven, Laura Gati, Bartosz Maćkowiak, Kalin Nikolov, Melina Papoutsi, Alexander Popov (all European Central Bank)

Contact persons