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Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance 2024

Sponsored by the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Tuesday, 12 and Wednesday, 13 November 2024
European Central Bank

The purpose of the Forum is to promote the discussion of frontier research on empirical and theoretical issues in international finance, global banking and open economy macroeconomics, with a focus on issues relevant to monetary policy and financial stability.

This year’s Forum will focus on the central bank challenges implied by rising geoeconomic fragmentation risk and its consequences for global financial markets and institutions. 

Request remote participation

If you want to attend the conference remotely, please request participation by clicking on the links below. When your registration is approved, you will receive an invitation to join the webinar.

Programme

* indicates the presenter

Tuesday, 12 November 2024
9:30

Registration and coffee

10:00

Welcome address

Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank

10:10

Session 1
Financial globalisation and interconnectedness

Session chair: Ricardo Correa, Federal Reserve Board

Global Financial Chains

  • Raoul Minetti, Michigan State University
  • Giacomo Romanini*, Bank of Italy
  • Oren Ziv, Michigan State University

Discussant: Saleem Bahaj, University College London and CEPR

Elephants in Equity and Currency Markets

  • Hélène Rey, London Business School
  • Adrien Rousset Planat, London Business School
  • Vania Stavrakeva*, London Business School
  • Jenny Tang, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Discussant: Livia Chiţu, European Central Bank

12:10

Coffee break

12:30

Session 2 – Part 1
The effects of sanctions on trade

Session chair: Arnaud Mehl, European Central Bank and CEPR

International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions

  • Galip Kemal Ozhan*, International Monetary Fund
  • Fabio Ghironi, University of Washington
  • Daisoon Kim, North Carolina State University

Discussant: Dmitry Mukhin, London School of Economics and CEPR

13:30

Buffet lunch

15:00

High-level policy panel
Financial sanctions and their implications for the international monetary system

Chair: Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Panellists:

  • Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School, NBER and CEPR
  • Linda Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NBER and CEPR
  • Gabriel Felbermayr, WIFO
16:00

Coffee break

16:20

Session 2 – Part 2
The effects of sanctions on trade

Session chair: Arnaud Mehl, European Central Bank and CEPR

Difference-in-Differences Gravity Estimations of Treatments with Exit: The Case of Sanctions

  • Ohyun Kwon, Drexel University
  • Arne J. Nagengast*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Jangsu Yoon, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
  • Yoto V. Yotov, Drexel University

Discussant: Julian Hinz, University of Bielefeld

17:20

End of day 1

19:00

Dinner, by invitation

Dinner speech
Trade and peace

Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Sciences Po and CEPR

Wednesday, 13 November 2024
8:30

Registration and coffee

9:00

Keynote speech

Hélène Rey, London Business School, NBER and CEPR

Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank

10:00

Coffee break

10:30

Session 3
Global supply chains

Session chair: Ozge Akinci, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR

Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains

  • Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School
  • Mariya Brussevich, International Monetary Fund
  • Camelia Minoiu*, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • Andrea Presbitero, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Tomasz K. Michalski, HEC Paris

Supply Chain Shortages, Large Firms’ Market Power, and Inflation

  • Francesco Franzoni, USI Lugano
  • Mariassunta Giannetti*, Stockholm School of Economics and CEPR
  • Roberto Tubaldi, BI Norwegian Business School

Discussant: Matteo Crosignani, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR

12:30

Buffet lunch

13:30

Session 4
Macroeconomic and financial implications of geopolitics

Session chair: Juan M. Londono, Federal Reserve Board

Do Geopolitical Risks Raise or Lower Inflation?

  • Dario Caldara, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Sarah Conlisk, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Harvard University
  • Matteo Iacoviello*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Maddie Penn, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Yale University

Discussant: Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR

The Geoeconomics of International Political Relations and Sovereign Defaults

  • Consuelo Silva-Buston, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
  • Marcela Valenzuela, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
  • Ilknur Zer*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Ugo Panizza, Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR

15:30

End of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.

General information

Venue

European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main

Languages

English

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Organising committee
  • Ozge Akinci, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Ricardo Correa, Federal Reserve Board
  • Linda Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
  • Juan M. Londono, Federal Reserve Board
  • Arnaud Mehl, European Central Bank
  • Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank
Contacts

Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
+49 69 1344 58 51

Arnaud Mehl, European Central Bank
+49 69 1344 86 83

GRF2024@ecb.europa.eu