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PRZEMÓWIENIE

Bańki na rynkach kryptoaktywów i finanse cyfrowe

Krach na rynkach kryptoaktywów był kolejnym ostrzeżeniem, że nie można zapewnić stabilności finansów bez zaufania. Nie da się go zastąpić ślepą wiarą w algorytmy. Zaufanie wymaga przejrzystości, regulacji i kontroli – powiedział członek Zarządu EBC Fabio Panetta.

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

WYWIAD 6 grudnia 2022

Polityka pieniężna i perspektywy gospodarcze

Główny ekonomista EBC Philip R. Lane w wywiadzie dla „Milano Finanza” przedstawił najnowszą ocenę polityki pieniężnej EBC i perspektyw gospodarczych.

Wywiad
PUBLIKACJA 7 grudnia 2022

Publikacja danych z badania oczekiwań konsumentów

Najnowsze wyniki naszego comiesięcznego badania opinii, oczekiwań i zachowań konsumentów ze strefy euro można teraz znaleźć na stronie internetowej EBC. Od listopada 2022 co kwartał zamieszczamy na niej także mikrodane z tego badania do celów badawczych i użytku publicznego.

Badanie ankietowe
WYDARZENIE 8 grudnia 2022

Szósta doroczna konferencja ERRS

8 grudnia odbędzie się szósta doroczna konferencja Europejskiej Rady ds. Ryzyka Systemowego. Prelegenci omówią wyzwania dla polityki w obecnym otoczeniu makroostrożnościowym oraz wpływ innowacji technologicznych na ryzyko systemowe.

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7 December 2022
PRESS RELEASE
6 December 2022
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
6 December 2022
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
6 December 2022
PRESS RELEASE
Related
6 December 2022
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
2 December 2022
OTHER GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISION
2 December 2022
PRESS RELEASE
8 December 2022
Welcome remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB and Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board, at the sixth annual conference of the ESRB
7 December 2022
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Insight Summit held at the London Business School
English
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Annexes
7 December 2022
7 December 2022
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) annual conference on “Global Perspective 2023”
1 December 2022
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, Lustrum Symposium organised by Dutch Financial Law Association
1 December 2022
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Banque de France / EUI conference “Headwinds: upcoming macroeconomic risks”, Florence
6 December 2022
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Ninfole
English
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21 November 2022
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 16 November 2022
8 November 2022
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck on 3 November 2022
1 November 2022
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Žanete Hāka
English
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14 October 2022
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Dalius Simenas on 10 October 2022
English
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30 November 2022
Amid the widespread fallout in crypto markets following the collapse of a major crypto exchange, The ECB Blog takes a look at where we stand with Bitcoin.
25 November 2022
Identifying the medium-term inflation path in the current environment of high inflation, ongoing energy and pandemic-related shocks and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a diagnostic challenge. In his ECB Blog post Philip R. Lane, Member of the ECB’s Executive Board, describes some of the key analytical issues involved.
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
e52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
e58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
18 November 2022
A shared understanding of how climate change affects the economy can be the basis for global action. To help inform and guide policy across the globe central bankers and supervisors have developed climate scenarios. This is the final post in a series on the occasion of COP27.
Details
JEL Code
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Related
15 November 2022
Europe is punching below its weight in the climate-technology competition. The continent needs to facilitate risk capital markets and to invest more in research and development. This is the 4th post in a series of climate-related entries on the occasion of COP27.
9 November 2022
We need to intensify the greening of our economies despite the energy crisis. Hastening the process will reduce the costs of transition and help to ensure price stability in the long run. This is the third post in a series of climate-related entries on the occasion of COP27.
8 December 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
7 December 2022
MEP LETTER
7 December 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2755
Details
Abstract
How do real interest rates affect financial fragility? We study this issue in a model in which bank borrowing is subject to rollover risk. A bank’s optimal borrowing trades off the benefit from investing additional funds into profitable assets with the cost of greater risk of a run by bank creditors. Changes in the interest rate affect the price and amount of borrowing, both of which influence bank fragility in opposite directions. Thus, the marginal impact of changes to the interest rate on bank fragility depends on the level of the interest rate. Finally, we derive testable implications that may guide future empirical work.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
6 December 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2754
Details
Abstract
This paper proposes a new and robust methodology to obtain conditional density forecasts, based on information not contained in an initial econometric model. The methodology allows to condition on expected marginal densities for a selection of variables in the model, rather than just on future paths as it is usually done in the conditional forecasting literature. The proposed algorithm, which is based on tempered importance sampling, adapts the model-based density forecasts to target distributions the researcher has access to. As an example, this paper shows how to implement the algorithm by conditioning the forecasting densities of a BVAR and a DSGE model on information about the marginal densities of future oil prices. The results show that increased asymmetric upside risks to oil prices result in upside risks to inflation as well as higher core-inflation over the considered forecasting horizon. Finally, a real-time forecasting exercise yields that introducing market-based information on the oil price improves inflation and GDP forecasts during crises times such as the COVID pandemic.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
6 December 2022
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
28 November 2022
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
25 November 2022
MEP LETTER
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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25 November 2022
MEP LETTER
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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25 November 2022
MEP LETTER
25 November 2022
MEP LETTER
23 November 2022
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 101
Details
Abstract
Recent empirical findings (Bordalo et al., 2018, 2019; Greenwood et al., 2022) have vindicated the view thatsystemic risk in financial markets is also influenced by cognitive misperceptions about future economicdevelopments in addition to being influenced by financial frictions. Most of the literature on macroprudentialregulation, nonetheless, has omitted those misperceptions and instead has derived policy implicationsassuming rational expectations. In this article (which is based on Camous and Van der Ghote, 2021), weexamine the joint implications of external financing frictions and extrapolative expectations for the stability ofthe financial system and the appropriate conduct of macroprudential regulation. We find that interactionsbetween those two elements exacerbate financial instability relative to the rational benchmark. This calls fortighter macroprudential regulation, even when the regulator is also subject to cognitive misperceptions.Disagreement about the appropriate macroprudential regulation among potential regulators with differingdegrees of misperception is stronger during booms, when risk-taking in financial markets and in realinvestments is more aggressive.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
17 November 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2753
Details
Abstract
We employ interest rates and expected loss probabilities from the 2021 EBA Stress Test dataset and euro area credit registries to examine whether the risk-return relationship holds in banking. After controlling for bank, loan, and debtor characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions, results indicate that a risk-return relationship in bank lending is present but varies significantly across and within borrower segments. While bank lending rates appear to be quite responsive to risks towards households, results suggest that banks only significantly increase interest rates towards non-financial corporations that reside in the riskiest quantiles of the distribution. This potentially implies the presence of a cross-subsidization effect of credit risk.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
17 November 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2752
Details
Abstract
This paper assesses the role of the housing market in the transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy across euro area regions. By exploiting a novel regional dataset on housing-related variables, a structural panel VAR analysis shows that monetary policy propagates effectively to economic activity and house prices, albeit in a heterogeneous fashion across regions. Although the housing channel plays a minor role in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy on average, its importance increases in the case of unconventional monetary policy. We also explore the determinants of the diverse transmission of monetary policy to economic activity across regions, finding a larger impact in areas with lower labour income and more widespread homeownership. An expansionary monetary policy can thus be effective in mitigating regional inequality via its stimulus to the economy.
JEL Code
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
16 November 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2751
Details
Abstract
This paper analyses the implications of corporate indebtedness for investment following large economic shocks. The empirical analysis is based on a large Orbis-iBACH firm-level data set for euro area countries from 2005 to 2018. Our results suggest that investment of high-debt firms is significantly depressed for an extended period in the aftermath of economic crises. In the four years after a negative economic shock, the cumulative loss of capital of high-debt firms is around 15% higher than that of firms with lower debt burdens. The negative impact of high debt on investment is most evident for firms in Southern and Eastern Europe and for micro firms. These findings suggest a potentially significant negative impact of increased corporate indebtedness on investment in the post-COVID-19 recovery.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
16 November 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 309
Details
Abstract
Climate change poses three specific but interrelated policy challenges: climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation (which includes building up resilience) and managing transition risks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a multilateral institution with global reach and near-universal membership. Therefore, along with other international organisations, it has an important role to play in addressing the policy challenges posed by climate change. This paper discusses the contribution the IMF makes and can make in its three areas of competence: surveillance, lending and technical assistance. The paper concludes that the IMF has significantly increased its engagement in climate change matters in recent years but should further intensify its efforts in ways that are fully consistent with its mandate.
JEL Code
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
O19 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→International Linkages to Development, Role of International Organizations
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
Energy sector firms use energy derivatives under different strategies depending on their main area of activity, business model and exposure to risk in physical markets. The significant volatility and skyrocketing prices seen in energy markets since March 2022 have resulted in large margin calls, generating liquidity risks for derivatives users. Strategies employed by companies to alleviate liquidity stress may lead to an accumulation of credit risk for their lenders or their counterparties in less collateralised segments of the derivatives market. Further price increases would accentuate nascent vulnerabilities, creating additional stress in a concentrated market. These issues underline the need to review margining practices and enhance the liquidity preparedness of all market participants to deal with large margin calls.
JEL Code
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G20. : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the development of the liquidity mismatch for a broad sample of euro area open-ended bond funds. This mismatch arises if funds primarily invest in less liquid assets while at the same time offering their investors the option of short-term redemptions. In 2017 the Financial Stability Board (FSB) published policy recommendations to address structural vulnerabilities related to asset management activities, including liquidity mismatch. Our results suggest that the liquidity mismatch increased in the years up to the pandemic. In March 2020 many funds faced substantial redemption pressures, especially those with a relatively large structural liquidity mismatch, creating large fire-sale externalities. The increase in cash holdings after this shock indicates procyclicality in liquidity management strategies, suggesting that fund managers do not necessarily have the incentives to maintain sufficient liquidity buffers. Policies that aim to better align redemption terms with asset liquidity would help to enhance the resilience of the investment fund sector, as the liquidity mismatch is still prevalent and has not declined since the publication of the FSB policy recommendations in 2017.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box investigates the measurement of banks’ exposures to concentration risk related to climate change. It does so by introducing a new metric to quantify carbon-related concentration risk in banks’ corporate loan portfolios. Using data on individual borrowers’ emissions, the formula of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is extended to create a carbon-weighted HHI (cwHHI). The cwHHI reveals substantial heterogeneity in the degree of carbon-related concentration among portfolios similarly exposed to high-emitting firms. Furthermore, banks with exposures to high-emitting firms similar to their peers but with higher cwHHI experience higher expected losses in a disorderly transition scenario. The empirical findings of this box suggest that institutions and exposures significantly affected by carbon-related concentration risk run a higher risk of incurring losses, extending even to those banks with a lower share of exposures to high emitters. The implication is that carbon-related concentration risk may be a material risk driver.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
The euro area insurance sector and its relevance for real economy financing have grown significantly over the last two decades. This box examines the effects of higher interest rates on the size and composition of euro area insurers’ balance sheets, as well as the implications of these effects for financial stability. The results suggest that the size of insurers’ balance sheets decreases materially after a monetary tightening. Such tightening also induces shifts in asset holdings, which lead to a reduction in credit, liquidity and duration risk-taking. Medium-term financial stability risks in the insurance sector could therefore decline amid rising interest rates.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
In many previous editions of the FSR, we have warned about the risk of a “disorderly correction in asset markets”. In the most recent publication, we argued that higher than expected inflation can increase this risk and provide some arguments to substantiate this claim. However, with the inflation remaining a key topic, our “warning” needs to be better substantiated and more specific. The analytics in the box do exactly this. In both 2021 2022, the 12-month correlation between daily US bond and stock returns has crossed into positive territory. The assumption of having a low correlation between stock and bond returns has historically been one of the bedrocks of strategic asset allocation (e.g. the “standard” 60-40 split). The resulting diversification benefits, however, are contingent on the low correlation between asset classes. Higher or unstable cross-asset correlations complicate portfolio optimisation and risk management, and could also destabilise bond markets, where volatility is already elevated. We discuss the challenges that this poses for portfolio management and the implications for financial stability. Then we go on to investigate the direct and indirect drivers of the stock-bond correlation. We find empirical evidence that the current higher correlation, with its associated financial stability risks, may be driven by the present high inflation environment and related monetary policy expectations.
JEL Code
C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F65 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Finance
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates

Stopy procentowe

Kredyt w banku centralnym 2,25 %
Podstawowe operacje refinansujące (stała stopa) 2,00 %
Depozyt w banku centralnym 1,50 %
2 listopada 2022 Archiwum stóp procentowych EBC

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Kursy walutowe

USD US dollar 1.0519
JPY Japanese yen 143.75
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CHF Swiss franc 0.9889
Ostatnia aktualizacja: 8 grudnia 2022 Kursy walut obcych do euro