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Latest results from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Overview

This report contains the results for expectations for the unemployment rate from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Table 1 provides a comparison of the latest SPF data with other expectations and projections.

For more detailed information on the data contact the SPF team at ECB-SPF@ecb.europa.eu.



Table 1 - SPF results for the unemployment rate in comparison with other expectations and projections

percentages of the labour force

Source: SPF, Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections and Consensus Economics.

Notes: Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.

Expectations for the unemployment rate

In the quantitative questionnaire, respondents are asked to provide their point forecasts for the unemployment rate for six target periods in the future, expressed in year-on-year percentage changes. The questionnaire asks for the unemployment rate in the current calendar year and the following two years, as well as for the longer term (which, depending on the timing of the survey may be as much as four or five calendar years in the future). It also asks for monthly forecasts for rolling horizons one and two years ahead of the latest published datapoint, as these support a more robust analysis of uncertainty surrounding the forecasts.
Besides the point forecasts, respondents are also asked to provide probability distributions using fixed bins.

Chart 1

Expectations for the unemployment rate

calendar year forecasts (percentages of the labour force)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q1 2025SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025SPF Q4 20242024202520262027202820296.256.36.356.46.456.56.55

Source: SPF.

Chart 2

Expectations for the unemployment rate

rolling horizon forecasts (percentages of the labour force)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q1 2025SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025SPF Q4 2024Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26Oct-266.3756.46.4256.456.4756.56.525

Source: SPF.

Chart 3

Aggregate probability distributions for the expected unemployment rate

(x-axis: percentages of the labour force; y-axis: probability, percentages)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ 3.9%4.0 to 4.4%4.5 to 4.9%5.0 to 5.4%5.5 to 5.9%6.0 to 6.4%6.5 to 6.9%7.0 to 7.4%7.5 to 7.9%8.0 to 8.4%8.5 to 8.9%9.0 to 9.4%9.5 to 9.9%10.0 to 10.4%10.5 to 10.9%≥ 11%01020304050
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ 3.9%4.0 to 4.4%4.5 to 4.9%5.0 to 5.4%5.5 to 5.9%6.0 to 6.4%6.5 to 6.9%7.0 to 7.4%7.5 to 7.9%8.0 to 8.4%8.5 to 8.9%9.0 to 9.4%9.5 to 9.9%10.0 to 10.4%10.5 to 10.9%≥ 11%0510152025303540
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q1 2025≤ 3.9%4.0 to 4.4%4.5 to 4.9%5.0 to 5.4%5.5 to 5.9%6.0 to 6.4%6.5 to 6.9%7.0 to 7.4%7.5 to 7.9%8.0 to 8.4%8.5 to 8.9%9.0 to 9.4%9.5 to 9.9%10.0 to 10.4%10.5 to 10.9%≥ 11%0510152025303540
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ 3.9%4.0 to 4.4%4.5 to 4.9%5.0 to 5.4%5.5 to 5.9%6.0 to 6.4%6.5 to 6.9%7.0 to 7.4%7.5 to 7.9%8.0 to 8.4%8.5 to 8.9%9.0 to 9.4%9.5 to 9.9%10.0 to 10.4%10.5 to 10.9%≥ 11%051015202530

Source: SPF.

Notes: The SPF asks respondents to report their point forecasts and to separately assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. This chart shows the average probabilities assigned to different ranges of unemployment outcomes in 2025, 2026, 2027 and the longer term.
Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.